I was just asked by an online pub. to predict what will happen in higher education in the coming years. I had to fight the question. At best, predictions are based on facts and data and science and studies and experience in the trenches. Even then, predictions are fraught with uncertainty. Gamblers know that. So, after pointing out the non-homogenous nature of higher ed and the absence of consistent change, I suggested that it was vastly better to provide conjectures rather than predictions. The world is changing so fast; we’re in unknown territory. I suspect we don’t have all the data and what data we have may be flawed. It is for these very reasons that we feel anxious and stressed and a tad (or more) out of sorts. We have no control; we have no gold at the end of the rainbow; we have an absence of certainty. And it’s not like the messaging from our governments is consistent. The inability to predict is actually our problem. We can’t and therein lies the disquiet. So, in response to the editor’s questions, I won’t make predictions. Instead, I’ll conjecture. Watch for a later post where I conjecture about higher ed. One caveat: I can predict that most elite schools will not be on the frontline of innovation/change. They can afford to do neither. That’s sad. …see more